Methodology
How the numbers are put together
Ace Analyst's own rule: if a number is meant to change a decision, it should be possible to see where it came from and over what period it was measured. This page covers how each metric is calculated and, just as importantly, where its limits are.
Definitions
Metric by metric
Each of these is used somewhere in the product today — nothing here describes a planned or future model.
Total output vs. per-90 rates
Comparison and Player Explorer show raw totals (points, goals, assists, minutes) alongside per-90 rates — output normalized to a full match. A player who has played fewer minutes but produces at a higher rate reads differently from one who has simply played more; showing both together, rather than collapsing them into a single score, is deliberate.
Single-season vs. multi-season comparison
Single-season mode compares the current season's form. Multi-season mode aggregates totals and rates across every season Ace Analyst currently holds for both players being compared — up to seven seasons, 2019/20 through 2025/26, where the historical archive covers both players. Coverage is not guaranteed to be identical for every player.
Fixture difficulty (FDR)
The fixture-difficulty rating shown in Fixtures is the official Fantasy Premier League FDR, displayed alongside the schedule. Ace Analyst does not calculate or override this rating — it is one number standing in for attack, defence and home advantage combined, which is exactly why it is paired with the matchup layer rather than treated as sufficient on its own.
Player-vs-opponent matchup history
Matchups aggregates a player's fixture-level record against a chosen opponent or set of opponents — appearances, minutes, points, goals, assists and per-90 rates — with an optional home/away split and an adjustable historical window. An 'upcoming 3' view derives a player's next three actual fixtures and pulls the matching opponent history automatically.
Sample-size honesty
A player-opponent pairing can have anywhere from one match to several seasons of history. Ace Analyst does not smooth this over: where the app shows a matchup record, it shows the sample it's built from, so a two-match sample and a fourteen-match sample are never presented as equally decisive.
Budget and transfer-planning figures
Exact individual FPL selling prices and saved free transfers are not public data. Team Planner labels every budget figure as exact (taken directly from public FPL data), estimated (derived where the official figure isn't public), your own assumption (a value you tell the planner to use), or unavailable — rather than filling a gap with a confident-looking number.
Missing data is shown as missing
Where a metric genuinely isn't available for a player, season or matchup, Ace Analyst shows a dash or an explicit unavailable state rather than a zero. A zero and 'no data' are different facts, and treating them the same would misrepresent both.
Fixture projections
Team xG, clean-sheet and win probability — a second layer, not a replacement for FDR
Where enough market data exists for an upcoming fixture, Fixtures also shows team-level projections alongside the official FDR rating.
Team xG
A team-level estimate of how many goals a team is expected to score in a specific upcoming fixture. It describes the fixture, not any individual player's output, and is a different figure from a player's own expected-goals stats elsewhere in the product.
Clean-sheet probability
The estimated probability that a team's opponent fails to score in that fixture, from the same underlying fixture model as Team xG.
Scoring probability
The estimated probability that a team scores at least once in the fixture — a softer, complementary read alongside Team xG rather than a replacement for it.
Win probability
The estimated probability of a win, draw or loss for the fixture, from the same underlying model as the other three figures.
What's calculated vs. what's supplied
Ace Analyst calculates all four figures above from consensus sports-market pricing data — no external source publishes a "Team xG" or "clean-sheet probability" number directly. See Data for exactly how that input data is classified.
How to read a probability
These are estimates with a documented fit quality, not certainties and not FPL points forecasts. A strong Team xG fixture is a genuinely favourable matchup, not a guaranteed return — the decision, as with everything else on this page, stays with the person reading it.
When projection data isn't available
Market pricing doesn't exist yet for every future fixture, particularly further ahead. Where a projection isn't available, Fixtures automatically shows the official FDR rating for that fixture instead — never a blank space, and never an invented number.
Not a real-time feed
Market pricing behind these projections is captured periodically, not streamed live — a projection reflects prices at the time of capture, not the current moment.
What this is not
Decision support, not prediction
None of the methodology above produces an FPL points forecast or a recommendation. Ace Analyst puts total output, per-90 rates, official fixture difficulty, fixture projections and historical matchup context on one screen so the trade-offs are visible. What a player or team did before — even a favourable Team xG fixture — does not decide what happens next. The decision stays with the person reading the numbers.
Where the underlying data comes from
This page explains how metrics are calculated from the data Ace Analyst holds. For the data itself — sources, coverage and update frequency — see Data.
Keep exploring
More of the workflow
There's a decision waiting on you this week.
Open Ace Analyst, pull up your squad and see the comparison, the fixtures and the matchup behind the move in one place. Free public beta — no account, nothing to install.
Open Ace Analyst